Warsash Spring Series- Another sunny day but not as warm

SYNOPTIC SITUATION

High pressure dominates the area maintaining a gentle ENE airflow over the Solent
As temperatures increase expect this breeze to fade as a sea breeze attempts to develop

Air temperature: 15-16 Celsius

Weather:: Initially clear skies with cumulus developing

KEY POINTS
- Cumulus clouds will make the wind patchy
- decaying NE will hold longer along the shore
- developing sea breeze will be stronger along the shore

Time	Wind direction	Wind speed	Comments
0900-1100	050-080	06-09 occasional 11	Shifty and puffy conditions 15-25 deg
1100-1300	050-080 becoming variable	06-09 becoming 01-04	Wind decreasing as temperatures increase expect NE to hold for longer along the shore
1300-1500	Variable becoming 150-180	01-04	Initial light SE sea breeze attempting to establish
1500-1700	150-180 becoming 220-250	01-04 becoming 06-08	SW sea breeze finally dominating from 1530-1600

25th March Race 2 Warsash Spring- The sun is out and the temperature is up

Synoptic Situation
High pressure dominates the area with a tropical continental airflow, warm dry air from Europe, hazy and stable.

Air Temperature: 18-19 Celsius
Sea temperature: 8.5-9.5 Celsius (surface)

Weather: Clear skies, sunny sunny sunny
A moderate ENE airflow covers the area, but it is most likely that the following things will happen
1. there is a surface inversion- this means until temperatures over the water reach 14 Celsius there will be little or no wind.
2. Temperatures will be more than sufficient for a sea breeze development
3. The gradient wind (wind at 2000 FT) is not in the ideal direction- expect a delayed sea breeze and a light sea breeze
4. There will be an area of variable winds between the SE and SW winds that will dominate the central Solent

KEY POINTS
1. suncream and water!!!
2. As E wind fades it will hold to the shoreline for the longest
3. SW sea breeze will establish along the shoreline first
4. Mainland shoreline is safest
5. 0706 Low water and high water 1353.....tide will be going east

Time	Wind Direction	Wind Speed	Comments	Confidence
0900-1100	020-050 becoming 060-090	02-05 becoming 05-08	Surface inversion breaking and surface wind building	HIGH
1100-1300	060-090 becoming 110-130	05-08, locally calm in central Solent	Thermal influence establishing and wind trending to the SE then potentially dying as SW establishes	HIGH-MODERATE on max wind strength
1300-1500	110-130, locally variable, becoming 240-260	05-08, locally calm	SW sea breeze continuing to try and dominate- remaining SE in Southampton Water for longest	MODERATE on SW eventually dominating
1500-1700	240-260 becoming variable then 070-090	05-08	Sea breeze dying and E driven winds returning	LOW on returning E winds

Warsash Spring Series 2012- Solent -Race One

Synoptic situation
Unstable conditions dominate the area with a gentle to moderate WNW veering N airflow covering the Solent. A tough line (band of showers) is expected to move south through the day reaching the race area between 1400-1500

Air temperature max: 10 Celsius

Weather: predominantly clear skies with clouds building inland
Could see a slight shower from 1100-1200 ahead of the main band

HW Portsmouth: 0807
LW Portsmouth: 1352







KEY POINTS
- Tide Ebbing at start time with light winds- watch for getting pushed over the line
- Tide key factor with 1.0-1.2 KT to begin with light winds
- Surface wind will build and veer as temperatures increase with further shift expected by 1000 or soon after.
- Showers will bring increase wind ahead of them and a further right shift to the N

Time	Wind Direction	Wind speed	Comments	Air temp
0900-1100	270-290 becoming 290-310 by 1000	04-06 building 06-08	As temperatures increase expect increase in surface wind should be 06-08 KT by start and expect surface wind to veer	7-8
1100-1300	290-310	06-08 occasional 10	Cold air over warmer sea- unstable- shifty and gusty Clouds building inland	8-9
1300-1500	290-310 becoming 340-360	06-08 becoming 08-10	Shift in wind associated with band of shower clouds expected 1400-1500 Max wind strength with showers could see 15-16 KT	10
1500-1700	340-360, locally 020	08-10	Temperatures will drop markedly behind the showers	7-8

Fremantle Doctor

Currently down under just south of Perth, in Fremantle, Western Australia in the build up the ISAF World Championships, where countries try and qualify for the Olympic Games in 2012. Great Britain is obviously already guaranteed they're slots as we are the host nation, however not all of the British Sailing Team have been selected yet - this will surely be a place for those wanting to go to make their mark

I have been down here in Fremantle for a week and when we landed it was a relatively cool 15 Celsius at night and only 23-24 Celsius during the day, some coaches were heading to the shops to buy jumpers. However, we the had 32-34 Celsius and 20 plus degrees at night for a few days followed by the wettest day in December for 30 years yesterday here in Perth

Thunderstorms and torrential rain put stop to day 4 of racing for the Match racers and day 2 of racing for some of the other classes, however today we are getting back to 'normal'!

Wrapped for the rain and storms 

Fremantle as a venue is famous for being windy, with the wind here named the 'Fremantle Doctor' - why you may ask?

The standard answer is because it is a  breeze winds that appears to generate from Fremantle and bring welcome respite to the hot summer temperatures. I believe the doctor part was established due to the fact that the sea breeze comes in blows away a lot of the flies that potentially transferred more disease- though I can't remember where I read this officially

But, today for racing the Fremantle Doctor is in and I am off to provide the British Team with some further updates on the conditions and expected wind strengths for the day
Check back tomorrow for a better explanation of the Fremantle Doctor

Third and final day at J-Cup.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION
High pressure has finally moved in from SW and this is maintaining a moderate W airflow over the area. Initial overcast conditions will quickly lift to leave predominantly clear skies by 1100 and therefore a decreasing W wind
A local sea breeze will attempt to develop (100-140) but is likely to be unsuccessful resulting in a decreasing offshore wind

 Air temperature: 20-22 Celsius

Weather: Broken to overcast low level cloud lifting and clearing by 1100 to scattered cloud - mainly over the land

Time	Wind Direction	Wind Speed (KT)	Comments
0900-1100	270-290	04-07	Overcast cloud lifting to scattered- shifty offshore conditions
1100-1300	270-290 becoming 240-290	04-09	Scattered cloud – puffy conditions as town heats up
1300-1500	240-290	01-06	Surface wind decreasing as local sea breeze attempts to develop
1500-1700	240-290	01-06

Day Two of the J-Cup: Guernsey - the sun is coming out!

The low pressure that provided all the wet weather of yesterday has slipped E but continues to maintain a moderate to gentle N backing NW airflow over the area. This will provide offshore shifty conditions with a small probability of conditions becoming calm as a sea breeze attempts to develop

Air temperature 19-20 Celsius

Weather: Cloudy becoming scattered cumulus, predominantly clear skies

Time	Wind Direction	Wind Speed (KT)
0900-1100	350-010	05-09
1100-1300	310-350	03-09
1300-1500	310-350, locally calm, becoming 090-140	04-07
1500-1700	090-140 becoming 310-350	02-06

Sea breeze will be fairly weak and the development may actually just result in lighter offshore NW conditions, with slower moving pressure

J-Cup Guernsey- Tuesday

 Not the best start to the regatta in terms if sunshine. But definitely goo in terms of the wind

Synoptic Situation

Low pressure over France maintains a strong ENE airflow over the area. The associated frontal systems are fairly slow moving and not expected to clear through until 1400-1500

Air temperature: 16-18 Celsius

Weather: Moderate to heavy rain until 1400-1500, then isolated slight rain. Clouds breaking early evening

Time	Wind Direction	Wind speed (KT)
0900-1100	040-060	15-18 G  24
1100-1300	040-060	24-26 G 30
1300-1500	040-060	20-24 G 28
1500-1700	020-040	18-20 G 25

Outlook

Wednesday sees skies clear and a light N airflow dominate. Looking for thermal influence to increase the wind

330-360 02-05 becoming 060-100 05-08