Sunday, March 25, 2012

25th March Race 2 Warsash Spring- The sun is out and the temperature is up

Synoptic Situation
High pressure dominates the area with a tropical continental airflow, warm dry air from Europe, hazy and stable.

Air Temperature: 18-19 Celsius
Sea temperature: 8.5-9.5 Celsius (surface)

Weather: Clear skies, sunny sunny sunny
A moderate ENE airflow covers the area, but it is most likely that the following things will happen
1. there is a surface inversion- this means until temperatures over the water reach 14 Celsius there will be little or no wind.
2. Temperatures will be more than sufficient for a sea breeze development
3. The gradient wind (wind at 2000 FT) is not in the ideal direction- expect a delayed sea breeze and a light sea breeze
4. There will be an area of variable winds between the SE and SW winds that will dominate the central Solent

1. suncream and water!!!
2. As E wind fades it will hold to the shoreline for the longest
3. SW sea breeze will establish along the shoreline first
4. Mainland shoreline is safest
5. 0706 Low water and high water 1353.....tide will be going east

Wind Direction
Wind Speed
020-050 becoming 060-090
02-05 becoming 05-08
Surface inversion breaking and surface wind building
060-090 becoming 110-130
05-08, locally calm in central Solent
Thermal influence establishing and wind trending to the SE then potentially dying as SW establishes
HIGH-MODERATE on max wind strength
110-130, locally variable, becoming 240-260
05-08, locally calm
SW sea breeze continuing to try and dominate- remaining SE in Southampton Water for longest
MODERATE on SW eventually dominating
240-260 becoming variable then 070-090
Sea breeze dying and E driven winds returning
LOW on returning E winds

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Warsash Spring Series 2012- Solent -Race One

Synoptic situation
Unstable conditions dominate the area with a gentle to moderate WNW veering N airflow covering the Solent. A tough line (band of showers) is expected to move south through the day reaching the race area between 1400-1500

Air temperature max: 10 Celsius

Weather: predominantly clear skies with clouds building inland
Could see a slight shower from 1100-1200 ahead of the main band

HW Portsmouth: 0807
LW Portsmouth: 1352

- Tide Ebbing at start time with light winds- watch for getting pushed over the line
- Tide key factor with 1.0-1.2 KT to begin with light winds
- Surface wind will build and veer as temperatures increase with further shift expected by 1000 or soon after.
- Showers will bring increase wind ahead of them and a further right shift to the N

Wind Direction
Wind speed
Air temp
270-290 becoming 290-310 by 1000
04-06 building 06-08
As temperatures increase expect increase in surface wind should be 06-08 KT by start and expect surface wind to veer
06-08 occasional 10
Cold air over warmer sea- unstable- shifty and gusty
Clouds building inland
290-310 becoming 340-360
06-08 becoming 08-10
Shift in wind associated with band of shower clouds expected 1400-1500
Max wind strength with showers could see 15-16 KT
340-360, locally 020
Temperatures will drop markedly behind the showers