25th March Race 2 Warsash Spring- The sun is out and the temperature is up

Synoptic Situation
High pressure dominates the area with a tropical continental airflow, warm dry air from Europe, hazy and stable.

Air Temperature: 18-19 Celsius
Sea temperature: 8.5-9.5 Celsius (surface)

Weather: Clear skies, sunny sunny sunny
A moderate ENE airflow covers the area, but it is most likely that the following things will happen
1. there is a surface inversion- this means until temperatures over the water reach 14 Celsius there will be little or no wind.
2. Temperatures will be more than sufficient for a sea breeze development
3. The gradient wind (wind at 2000 FT) is not in the ideal direction- expect a delayed sea breeze and a light sea breeze
4. There will be an area of variable winds between the SE and SW winds that will dominate the central Solent

KEY POINTS
1. suncream and water!!!
2. As E wind fades it will hold to the shoreline for the longest
3. SW sea breeze will establish along the shoreline first
4. Mainland shoreline is safest
5. 0706 Low water and high water 1353.....tide will be going east

Time	Wind Direction	Wind Speed	Comments	Confidence
0900-1100	020-050 becoming 060-090	02-05 becoming 05-08	Surface inversion breaking and surface wind building	HIGH
1100-1300	060-090 becoming 110-130	05-08, locally calm in central Solent	Thermal influence establishing and wind trending to the SE then potentially dying as SW establishes	HIGH-MODERATE on max wind strength
1300-1500	110-130, locally variable, becoming 240-260	05-08, locally calm	SW sea breeze continuing to try and dominate- remaining SE in Southampton Water for longest	MODERATE on SW eventually dominating
1500-1700	240-260 becoming variable then 070-090	05-08	Sea breeze dying and E driven winds returning	LOW on returning E winds

Warsash Spring Series 2012- Solent -Race One

Synoptic situation
Unstable conditions dominate the area with a gentle to moderate WNW veering N airflow covering the Solent. A tough line (band of showers) is expected to move south through the day reaching the race area between 1400-1500

Air temperature max: 10 Celsius

Weather: predominantly clear skies with clouds building inland
Could see a slight shower from 1100-1200 ahead of the main band

HW Portsmouth: 0807
LW Portsmouth: 1352







KEY POINTS
- Tide Ebbing at start time with light winds- watch for getting pushed over the line
- Tide key factor with 1.0-1.2 KT to begin with light winds
- Surface wind will build and veer as temperatures increase with further shift expected by 1000 or soon after.
- Showers will bring increase wind ahead of them and a further right shift to the N

Time	Wind Direction	Wind speed	Comments	Air temp
0900-1100	270-290 becoming 290-310 by 1000	04-06 building 06-08	As temperatures increase expect increase in surface wind should be 06-08 KT by start and expect surface wind to veer	7-8
1100-1300	290-310	06-08 occasional 10	Cold air over warmer sea- unstable- shifty and gusty Clouds building inland	8-9
1300-1500	290-310 becoming 340-360	06-08 becoming 08-10	Shift in wind associated with band of shower clouds expected 1400-1500 Max wind strength with showers could see 15-16 KT	10
1500-1700	340-360, locally 020	08-10	Temperatures will drop markedly behind the showers	7-8